Will Any State Flip Party in 2020 Presidential Election?


Next question today is, Hey, do you believe
that any state is going to flip party in the 2020 presidential election from the 2016 results? There’s actually a much bigger conversation
to be had here, but first let’s think it through. I think Arizona is certainly a possibility. Um, Donald Trump is a, the Democrats had a
very strong showing in Arizona, um, during the midterms and polling is looking very strong
in Arizona. So Arizona is a possibility that that might
flip in 2020 when we talk about key States that went to Trump, uh, by a little bit, but,
uh, in 2016 but could go the other way. North Carolina is certainly a possibility. George is a possibility, although less likely,
I think if Georgia goes blue in 2020, it will be a landslide against Donald Trump. I find it hard to believe there would be a
situation where Georgia is isolated as a state that flips and otherwise the election is basically
as in 2016 even though we have 50 individual elections, there are still trends and there
is still momentum. And I think if Georgia goes blue, um, a lot
of other things will go blue as well. I think it’s conceivable that Minnesota, if
you want to find a blue state that could go to Trump, it’s possible. Minnesota has been sort of a right leaning
a little bit lately and the numbers are not looking as cleanly positive for the eventual
democratic nominee. I don’t think that it’s super likely. There are people talking about New Hampshire
as well. Um, I think that there’s actually another
interesting possibility if we want to. So look at Florida for example. Florida is a state that is a very important
state in many elections because it sometimes goes to the Democrats, sometimes it goes to
the Republican and it’s often pretty close. I think that in 2020, we could have a pretty
wacky result where the popular vote results are very similar to 2016 and that the democratic
challenger will win by several million votes. But you could either have a Trump reelection
with a similar electorial vote margin, uh, as in 2016 or you could have a very similar
popular vote result and a democratic win if some key States, like for example, there,
there was a map I was looking at Florida and Ohio could remain with Trump, but he could
still lose Elekta morally. And um, there are some pretty wacky maps that,
uh, have been put together that are at least conceivably plausible based on state polling
right now. But if I had to say, what is the the most
likely flip, I think it’s Arizona to go blue, North Carolina, maybe to go blue. Uh, the governor there is somewhat popular. Um, and I, I think the one thing to consider
when we look at these numbers is that because there is no democratic nominee yet, the Republican
propaganda machine has not yet been able to just focus on any one democratic candidate. Whereas every democratic candidate has been
talking about Donald Trump. Sometimes even during the debates, democratic
candidates won’t even talk about their own policy. They will just, there’ll be asked a question
about what they would do and they will just criticize Donald Trump. We’ve seen a Pete Buddha judge do it. We’ve seen CommonWell Harris do it. I don’t, I won’t list everybody because almost
everyone has done it at least at some point during the debates. Uh, I think the most likely scenario in 2020
is very similar results nationally in the popular vote and close results in some of
these key States, which might go the other way this time. So I think that if a democratic candidate
is going to win and defeat Trump in November of 2020 you will see a similar popular vote
win as we saw in 2016 two three, 4 million votes, something like that. But you will see small margins go the other
way in those few key States that that made it for Trump, it was Wisconsin, it was Michigan,
Pennsylvania, North Carolina. That’s where I think you will see this election
won or lost. It’s not a reason to ignore other places. You still got to work in other places, but
I think ultimately small margins in those key States are going to be the difference
maker. Last question today. Hey David. How will Joe Biden handle Ukraine attacks
from Donald Trump if he becomes the nominee? This, this is a good question because this
has already come up and Joe Biden is completely mangled the answer. I believe that Joe Biden needs to fight back
when that issue comes up. If Joe Biden is the nominee and issues of
Hunter Biden’s job at the Ukrainian gas company are woven into the discussion about Trump
and impeachment. Other day I saw an interview that Joe Biden
gave where he was asked about it and he just, he seemed totally disoriented. He seemed dazed almost. How has he not come up with a strong answer
on this issue? He’s already looking weak about it. So a few thoughts that I have. Number one, Biden needs a strategy. I would sort of workshop it and there’s a
few different angles you could take. One angle you could take and say, Oh, hold
on a second, hold on a second.

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Comments

  1. Hey there. I'm from Minnesota. I don't think ya have yer prediction on target there for the north. We haven't voted for a republican since Nixon for cryin' in da beer! We voted for Dukakis and Mondale! Now, this time around we got Amy Klobuchar in the running, and with that, it's kinda like havin' ta root for the Vikes don'tcha know. We hope they have a good year, and maybe make it to the playoffs, but ya know they ain't gonna go all da way. So then we just root for whoever is playin' against the Packers. Same with Amy. We hope she makes a good show of representin' us, and don't do nothin' embarrassing, but we'll be happy to support Sanders when she runs out of money.

  2. Oh Nebraskas got alot of blue but Donald's throwing free money, your money, at the farmer thru tariffs taxes. And these birds when you buy them a new combine or tractor and the new yearly pickup truck will vote for a frog if it hopped in there dinner, spit in there face, and took a dump in there grain bins. The Don's buying votes in the midwest and it's hard to fight, and the evangelicals make them think its Gods will, to have a Nero in office, the games will start soon. Were all worth about 130,000 dollars each if you let him screw ya. And he will if he gets back in office. He thinks the north has robbed him and like Jesse James is out to rob the union Banks.

  3. Do you think there is a possibility that someone will try to hurt Bernie like they have done with past progressive figures? It's something I'm starting to worry about

  4. Iowa, Missouri, Wisconsin Michigan, Indiana, Ohio, Pennsylvania, Tennessee, West Virginia, North Carolina, Kentucky and Utah are all going to flip.

  5. depends who the candidate is. bernie could bring a tidal wave, especially depending on vp. biden is just a lighter version of trump

  6. And this is the conversation that needs to take place. Don't think about "popularity" overall. You need to look at the electoral college. Trump could easily win the electoral college with an even larger margin of popular vote loss in 2020.

  7. USA. You have being the beacon of hope and freedom for most of the world. We thank you for the strength and blood you gave to protect others. You now must understand , while Dump remains unpunished and in office your country is lost and your laws are broken. How can you allow a person with Dumps qualities to remain in power, we do not understand. We don't trust our greatest aillie and we will not be with you if he starts war. Please remove him and all the people that have followed and made great profit at your expense. Your land, health, children, education, debt, economy and reputation are being killed on the world stage as we can only warn you lookup. This administration is wrong. And will only get worse.

  8. Uh, Michigan, Pennsylvania, Wisconsin…Bernie the "Rust Belt" champion. Let's go Democrats. Nominate Bernard. #Bernie2020 #NotMeUs #MedicareForAll

  9. Trumps supporters will go bonkers when loses.
    Buy Smith Wesson stock. (AOBC)
    It went up 1,000% when Obama was elected.

  10. It really depends on how many young people vote. Young people lean Democrat and millennials are now then largest potential voting block.

  11. Tarrant County/Texas dems are working our asses off to flip the last major red urban area in Tx. It's looking pretty good!

  12. Good news! I came across Drumpf voters from 2017 + who regretted voting for him. I HOPE GA turns blue & catches up with the rest of the country.

  13. Wisconsin,Pennsylvania, and Michigan will go back Democratic. If the Democrats holds on to the states Hillary Clinton won in 2016. Plus the 3 states I mentioned then the Democrats take back the white house.

  14. It’s so sad that even one person would vote for him, I get it in 2016 , people just didn’t see the full scope , but now? How could anyone that cares about our country even think to vote for him that breaks my heart

  15. This week’s Sunday (Trump) bible verse

    And so, it was that the chosen leader was re-elected and the sun was blotted from the sky. On the 8th day past his second rise, he spoke unto his followers, the adoring masses hearing his voice as if thunder from the heavens and they gave rapt attention.

    His master’s voice saying, “Rejoice my followers for in our rightness for we are the best, we are the brightest and we are the chosen ones and I am your leader, a Man of all men because I have riches beyond all that you dream.

    Listen unto me and do as I have commanded and thou wilt be as kings upon the earth. All the riches shall be yours and all the comforts of heaven on earth, if one will do as I command. Question not, and think not, but blindly follow my voice which shall fall upon your ears as the chirping of a sweet bird. Go thouest unto the South upon the peninsula of this Kingdom to a land known as Mar-va-lous-ago and gather there and wait upon my word which shall come you upon tablets of light and borne by wings of birds.”

    And the faithful began their journey which lasted forty days until they reached the land of Mar-va-lous-ago and they waited. Eighteen rounds they waited until their master spoke unto them yet again, saying: “Go and walk thouest into the ocean, side by side, saying my name all the while, go ahead, say my name. Walk into the water and continue South and fear not, for you shall be as fish in the seas, and your legs become fins and thy mouth shall be gills and thou shalt swim into the depths bearing my name upon your lips. Fear not for swimmers you shall be and you shall be borne down into the depths by gentle creatures and when the bottom of the deepest of seas is reached, thou shalt have arrived at the end of the earth (not Atlantis, but a different place, trust me) and all shall be yours. Untold riches without taxation, never ending life and good health for free, and each man acquiring seventy-two virgins and the women you bring shall be placed into your kitchens to cook for you as the Kings you are.

    Your lives will be unending and forever and each day shall bring untold wealth and fabulous riches and no one shall question or doubt you for my knowledge is yours and I am a Man among men. Trust me. I will allow you to place your hands upon my head and your hands shall be anointed with my grease. Say my name, go ahead, say my name. Follow my voice, as a birds’ voice to guide you. Go now and receive your reward for having sworn your allegiance to me, for having no thoughts except mine, for having no hearts and no soul except as mine. Reap your rewards now, oh ye faithful.”

    And lo and behold, the faithful, the unquestioning, the unthinking, and the soulless followed the sound of the birds to the orange spot over the ocean and one by one they disappeared beneath the waves. The faithful floundered alas, as their feet became bricks of lead, and their legs grew no fins and their mouths grew no gills, and they sank into the depths and the birds stopped singing in their ears. The sharks arrived and the ocean boiled in blood from their frenzied feeding as if upon helpless mullet fish.

    When the last of the faithful followers was swallowed by the waters and the waters calmed, the skies cleared and the sun shone brightly and people rejoiced, for the greasy evil had been purged from the land.

  16. It baffles me to see so-called "rust belt" states voting red.
    *TRE45ON has stats about new "jobs", but they're mostly minimum wage jobs. Manufacturing communities (Youngstown OH, Flint MI, etc) have been decimated by this criminal administration.
    Overall economy is stagnant in these states AND America is paying the China tariffs.
    Wake up, Midwesterners!
    *TRE45ON does NOT care about anyone but ultra-rich people.
    Bernie is the best man for the job. 🇺🇸

  17. You never know about texas man, a Democrat almost won a senate seat. Who knows that the presidential election means for left leaning turn out after seeing that

  18. If Bernie's not the candidate, Oregon Will FLIP out!!😊
    Bernie in 2020
    Bernie in 2024
    Bernie in 2028
    Just need to change the law.

  19. Remember how "unpopular" Hillary was and she only lost Wisconsin by 22k and Michigan by 16k…and never visited those states…those are easy get back states with a couple visits by any Democrat

  20. The closer we get to November, the crazier Trump acts, the more states will flip. Republican leaders are now starting to speak out against him, and as Trump continues to make a spectacle of himself I think you'll find that more and more states will flip

  21. It Depends on who the Democrat is. Biden will probably flip the Rust Belt, and nothing More. Warren will probably flip the Rust Belt, along with another state like Iowa or Florida. Bernie I believe can flip just about anything against Trump except the Deep Red States.

    The Map is about to change in a number of different ways. For one, Florida and Texas will probably be Blue states by the 2028 Election because of Increasing Hispanic demographics in those states. Florida has shown to already be a Purple state as Obama won it in 2008 and 2012, and until 2018, they had one Democratic and one Republican Senator.

  22. Arizona won’t switch parties. It will not turn blue. Unfortunately it is a die-hard Republican/conservative state. Lots of fundamentalists, libertarians, conservatives, etc.

  23. The GOP cheating ways like voter suppression. Closing 1000’s of voting locations. Plus several others. Trump is going to win unless we unite and help these people get out to vote. Stay on policy on debates. Insults will not win. Stay focused please.

  24. It feels like Ohio and Iowa are leaning increasingly right. If there is a blue win, I’m guessing it will likely be at least PA, MI and WI, possibly FL, then (in descending order of likeliness) IA, NC, AZ, GA

  25. Dems need to focus on their policies and devote some time, but less time to running down trump. So positive campaigning.

  26. Look at all that Red David… you regressives better spread out if you want to win the Presidency or Senate ever again 🙂

  27. trump will probably win…just as the idiot Bush won a second time. the republicans have no desire to play fair and this time they will do whatever it takes.

  28. that is the absolute most milk-toast boring prediction possible. I honestly lost s little respect for this utterly uninspired answer.

  29. Electoral college voters should have a higher educational degree or some qualifications that they have credibility and intellectual merits to vote on behalf of the people. If the electors had critical thinking skills, we wouldn’t be in this mess now. Minimum Bachelor’s degree with strong critical thinking skills.

  30. Michigan, Wisconsin, and Pennsylvania had the smallest margins, and the Dems would need to win all three and hold all of the 2016 states to win in 2020. A tough hill to climb indeed.

  31. just wait until its Bernie v. Trump. Bernie has not yet begun to fight. Bernie is going to chop off big pieces of trump's voters with his passion, sincerity and sharp tongue.

  32. David is wrong. We cannot try to eke out a win in 2020. If it is a 3 or 4 million vote win and the Democratic nominee wins a squeaker in states like NC, PA and MI Trump will declare the election invalid due to crazy ass reasons and his nutty followers will buy it and there will be violence, not just the violence that is inevitable if he loses by a huge margin but death squads. Good ole boys going into urban areas looking to kill as many as they can type stuff.

    As to states that might flip, Ohio always has to be up for discussion. It is the swingiest of swing states. Florida was extremely close in 2016 and it looks like a lot of the formerly disenfranchised felons will vote in the blue counties. So Florida could go blue by a big margin. Michigan has been reliably blue for a long time. There was no great demographic shift that cost us the state in 2016 it was just turnout and the idiots voting for Stein (the same was true in Wisconsin). So assuming that neither stein nor Gabbard get any traction this time they should both flip by convincing margins. North Carolina has been trending blue for a longtime. Assuming there is also a dynamic opponent to Tillis NC could go blue and conditions seem ripe for that to be a long term shift. I think Arizona going blue is nearly a foregone conclusion. The retirees are mostly wealthier ex suburbanites than those in Florida who are deeply uncomfortable with Trump. Add in an energized Hispanic population and it would be something of a disaster if the Democrat doesn't win AZ.

    The 2 longshots, and this is where the DNC and the eventual nominee should sink their money particularly if Bloomberg is spending big in the "swing states," are Georgia and Texas. Big registration drives far enough ahead of November that litigation can force the registrations through whatever obstruction the RWNJ governments put up. Target the Atlanta, Dallas, Houston and Austin suburbs with Trumps own words and crazy antics in ads. There's a lot of hi tech jobs in those areas so hammer about the tariffs driving up the cost of hi tech components which will drive jobs elsewhere. Find an actual serious candidate to run against Cormyn in Texas to further drive up turnout there. We might not win either but if Trump and his allies are spending there they won't be spending elsewhere.

    Minnesota might go Republican. I've seen the polling but I think it will come through again. The rural areas aren't as solidly Republican in other places.

  33. The odds of Georgia going blue in 2020 is 927,538,772,847,624,851,738,000,000 to 1 against. Georgia is sooooooooooooo red Republican, it would take Donald Trump firing 20 megaton NUCLEAR missiles at each of 15 majorly hardcore Pro-Trump districts/counties in this state and literally killing millions of white conservative Republican POWER-GOD DIEHARD MAXIMUM ULTRA-LOYAL TRUMPISTS in those districts and counties before this state turns blue. And even then I still give it 50,000,000,000,000 to 1 odds against this state going to a Democratic party candidate in 2020.

    Do you understand that? Huh? Trump could literally NUKE the state of Georgia and still win Georgia by more than 40% points no matter who the Democrats choose to be their 2020 candidate. Jesus Christ himself in full Archangel form could come down from heaven and run against Trump on the Democrats side and Georgia would still go Trump's way in 2020. That is how Pro TRUMP this state is.

    Good luck proving me wrong! Good fucking luck kids! IT IS IMPOSSIBLE TO PROVE ME WRONG!!
    You understand that? IMPOSSIBLE!!

    In fact I need to adjust my odds.

    276.32001 × 10^5,671,438,201 to 1 odds against Georgia going blue in 2020.

    You kids have no clue how much this state hates anything and everything even remotely associated with even the most vaguely liberal concepts. These fucking people power stomp Nazi goosestep for Trump! Nothing in the entire history of the entire UNIVERSE can compare with how Pro-Trump and Ultra-fascist this state is. God himself will drop fucking dead before Georgia goes blue.

    Isn't that right Georgia Trump supporters?

    Georgia Trump supporters: "MMMMMMMMMMMMMMMMMMMMMMMmmmmmmmmmmmoooooohhhhhmmmmmmmmmmmMMMMMMMMAAAAAAAAAAAAAGGGAAAAAAAHHHHHHH!!" ☠

    See? Georgia is Trump country,…… 🙃🙂🙃🙂🙃🙂🙃🙂🙃🙂🙃🙂🙃🙂🙃🙂🙃🤪

  34. Wish I could be optimistic about a possibility of my state (Nebraska)flipping unfortunately that will never ever happen in my lifetime! 😢

  35. Over 4 years 11 million people and 8 million 2016 voters will have died for a net loss to Trump of around 2.5 million since older voters vote roughly 2 to 1 Republican. They are replaced by millennials and gen Zers who vote mostly Democratic at a nearly 2 to 1 clip. That factor alone should be a 4 or 5 million vote net change.

  36. PA WI MI and OH are most likely to go blue

    im skeptical of biden and klobuchar but overall i think any of the he top polling canidates could win except bootyjuggs who polls so bad with blacks.

    those sates definitley flip if its bernie or warren

  37. I just cant believe what Democrats are doing, Trump is trying hard to BeBest™️ and win bigly for all Americans and the lefty crybabies just keep pointing out all of his “criminal acts” not fair, NOT FAIR! If Obama did crimes like Trump nobody from the red team would EVER overreact and impeach, IMPEACH? Trump is not impeached because Rudy DOES DRESS NICE!!! #MAGA #Trump2020 for prison.

  38. As a Michigander, I have seen vets (and family members) who voted for tRump begin to dislike him, however, this latest propaganda tRump and the Republican party are slinging saying that Dems are mourning the death of Solemani and are not only unpatriotic, but unAmerican, and terrorist lovers is working to pull them back to vote again for tRump. I'm afraid it is going to work. Just my observation.

  39. It’s about time we flip in Arizona! I’m from the Tucson area luckily we’ve always been way progressive compared to the Phoenix metro. Even tho Phoenix is like 4-5 times larger we just have less of a suburban and old retiree population than Phoenix. While here were way more Hispanic/Latino based around the U of A and have pride in our Mexican/ Spanish Colonial history history even tho Mexicans are typically more conservative culturally here in the US they want equality so they lean left when here in America causing Tucson to be fairly progressive.

  40. I've talked to trump voters before and every one of them said their support was more anti Hillary than pro trump. And they also said that Bernie would've changed a lot of votes away from trump. Anecdotal I know but that was my experience.

  41. Virginia was already taken over so it is possible and a Florida has over a million and a half new voters that are felons but Republicans are trying to place in a poll tax.

  42. In 2016 too many democrat voters sat out the election because of the controversy in the primaries. Sanders supporters did not vote for Hilary. This will not happen again. No matter who the nominee is going to be to avoid 4 more years of this people will come out in numbers. And if he gets reelected by whatever error the first 4 years will seem tame compared to what could come.

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